Introduction
As the possibility of former U.S. President Donald Trump winning the 2024 presidential election grows, the Japanese government is preparing for various scenarios. While maintaining a relationship with the current Biden administration, Japan is also preparing for the potential of Trump’s return. This blog explores what a Trump victory could mean for Japan, focusing on diplomatic relations, national security, and economic impacts.
Preparing for a Trump Comeback
Diplomatic Relations
Japan is keenly watching the U.S. presidential election. Chief Cabinet Secretary Yoshimasa Hayashi recently expressed the government’s close attention to the campaign. The Japanese Foreign Ministry is mobilizing its resources, including the Japanese Embassy in Washington and consulates across the United States, to monitor Trump’s remarks and analyze the situation, especially in key battleground states.
To avoid past mistakes, the ministry plans to engage with potential key figures in a future Trump administration. This approach stems from lessons learned in the 2016 election when Japan, expecting Hillary Clinton to win, failed to establish strong communication with the Trump camp. A senior ministry official emphasized the importance of engaging with both sides to ensure preparedness.
Maintaining the Alliance
Prime Minister Fumio Kishida has emphasized that the Japan-U.S. alliance will remain strong regardless of the election outcome. However, Trump’s previous statements on national security and international trade have raised concerns. For instance, Trump has criticized NATO allies for not meeting financial commitments and suggested the U.S. might not defend them. This stance could extend to Japan, potentially leading to increased demands for Japan to contribute more to regional security, particularly concerning Taiwan or other emergencies.
National Security Concerns
Taiwan and Regional Stability
Trump’s potential return has sparked fears about U.S. commitments to regional security. In the past, Trump threatened to withdraw U.S. forces from South Korea, raising concerns about similar actions in Japan. There’s also worry that Trump might push Japan to make further contributions in response to a Taiwan contingency. Japan views supporting Taiwan as critical to maintaining regional stability and deterring China from using force to change the status quo.
Support for Ukraine
Another concern is Trump’s stance on Ukraine. If Trump terminates U.S. assistance for Ukraine, it could undermine Japan’s efforts to support Ukraine against Russian aggression. Japan sees this support as crucial not only for Ukraine but also for sending a strong message to China about the consequences of attempting to alter international borders by force.
Economic Impacts
Trade and Tariffs
On the economic front, Trump’s trade policies could pose significant challenges for Japan. Trump has advocated for higher tariffs to protect U.S. industries, particularly in the automotive sector. This protectionist stance could strain Japan-U.S. economic relations. A veteran lawmaker from Japan’s ruling Liberal Democratic Party noted that Trump’s preference for deals over diplomacy could destabilize the bilateral relationship.
Japanese Investments in the U.S.
Prime Minister Kishida plans to visit the United States in April as a state guest to reinforce the strong bilateral alliance with Biden. During this visit, Kishida will highlight the positive impacts of Japanese investments in regional U.S. cities, such as job creation. This effort aims to appeal to the Trump camp, which prioritizes investment and economic benefits. By showcasing these achievements, Japan hopes to mitigate any potential economic tensions that might arise from a Trump presidency.
Broader Implications
Shifts in Global Dynamics
Japan is not the only country facing significant shifts in demographics and societal changes. Globally, birth rates are declining, marriage ages are increasing, and populations are aging. These trends are contributing to a rise in single-person households and altering consumer behavior. Businesses worldwide, including in Japan, are adapting to these changes, which could influence how future U.S. administrations engage with international partners.
Preparing for Uncertainty
Given the uncertainties surrounding the U.S. election, Japan is taking a pragmatic approach by preparing for both possible outcomes. Engaging with potential Trump administration figures and maintaining strong ties with the current administration are part of this strategy. By doing so, Japan aims to safeguard its national interests and ensure stability in its relationship with the United States.
Donald Trump welcomes former Japanese prime minister to New York (youtube.com)
Conclusion
If Donald Trump wins the 2024 U.S. presidential election, it could significantly impact Japan. Facing potential national security and economic challenges, Japan will need to carefully manage its alliance with the United States. By preparing for various scenarios and using its diplomatic and economic capabilities, Japan can adjust to shifting geopolitical dynamics and sustain a strong partnership with its crucial ally.
